Disaster Risks
Disaster Risk is high for Bull Run. The most significant environmental threat for this location is Flood, with a severe risk score of 77.
Hide detailsFlood Risk
There’s a Severe Flood Risk score for Bull Run, where the FEMA floodzone is X. This area is not flooded by the 100-year flood event but it is at risk from the 500-year flood event. Insurance is NOT MANDATORY.
The Augurisk Coastal Flooding Hazard index is based on three key components: the mean elevation of your block, the expected sea level rise in your area, and your exposure to hurricanes.Note that storm surge is currently not explicitly described by the Augurisk coastal flooding hazard index. Depending on your location, storm surge can increase the water level by considerable amounts.During Hurricane Katrina, the sea level increased by up to 28 feet locally (NOAA). If you live along the coastline, it is strongly advised to follow official announcements in your area.
References
Elevation data - USGS 3DEP Elevation . Sweet, W.V., R.E. Kopp, C. P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R. M. Horton, E.R. Thieler and C. Zervas (2017), Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. NOAA Tech. Rep. NOS CO-OPS 83. For more information on storm surges, visit nhc.noaa.gov
Wildfire Risk
Bull Run faces a Low Wildfire Risk.
The Augurisk Wildfire Hazard index is defined at the U.S. Census block level. It is based on the potential for wildfire burning in your block - based on data from Dillon et al. (2015, 2018) - and the impact of climate change on the potential for wildfire in the United States, particularly in the West (Abatzoglu and Williams, 2016). Therefore, the average temperature change in summer between the 1980-2005 and 2006-2100 has been extracted from two selected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the NA-CORDEX project (Mearns et al.,2017) and taken into account in defining the hazard score. The scenario considered is RCP4.5. All index values are normalized to a 0-100 scale..
References
Abatzoglou, J.T., and A.P. Williams. 2016. “Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(42):11770. Mearns, L.O., et al., 2017: The NA-CORDEX dataset, version 1.0. NCAR Climate Data Gateway, Boulder CO, accessed [December 2019], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6SJ1JCH Dillon, G.K.; J. Menakis; and F. Fay. 2015. Wildland Fire Potential: A Tool for Assessing Wildfire Risk and Fuels Management Needs. pp 60-76 In Keane, R. E.; Jolly, M.; Parsons, R.; and Riley, K. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 345 p. Note : data updated in 2018.
Earthquake Risk
Such an earthquake is light. It is felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awaken. Dishes, windows, doors are disturbed; walls make cracking sounds. A sensation like a heavy truck is striking the building can be felt. Standing motor cars rock noticeably.
The Augurisk Earthquake Hazard index is defined at the U.S. Census block level. It is based on the intensity of the earthquake happening in your block with a 2% probability over the next 50 years, and computed using data from USGS (Rukstales and Petersen, 2019). Intensity is defined based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI). All scores are normalized to a 0-100 scale.
References
Rukstales, K.S., and Petersen, M.D., 2019, Data Release for 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9WT5OVB. More information on the Modified Mercalli Index and its interpretation can be found on usgs.gov.
Bull Run Disaster Risk Rankings
Crime Risk
Crime risk is low for Bull Run. On average, our algorithm predicts 36 violent crimes 338 property crimes, 69 acts of vandalism and 30 motor vehicle thefts this year in your block group.
Hide detailsProperty Crime
338 predicted Property Crimes in a year
Vehicle Theft
69 predicted Vehicle Thefts in a year
Violent Crime
36 predicted Violent Crimes in a year
Acts of Vandalism
69 predicted Acts of Vandalism in a year
The Augurisk Crime score is defined at the Census Block Group, by taking into account yearly violent and property crimes rates per 1000 inhabitants, predicted by our machine learning algorithm between 2015 and 2019. In order to predict crime occurrences where data is unavailable, our algorithm uses over 200 socio-economic, demographic, climatic, spatial, and law enforcement predictors selected based on various insights, from multidisciplinary literature review to correlation analysis and feature engineering. The predicting model is based on and has been tested against historical high-resolution crime data collected by the Open Crime Database for around 15 cities in the US with up to 79% accuracy.
References
Ashby, M.P.J. (2019): Studying Crime and Place with the Crime Open Database. Research Data Journal for the Humanities and Social Sciences 4(1), pp. 65-80. U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey, 2015-2019 5-Year Estimates. Fick. S.E., and R.J. Hijmans, 2017. WorldClim 2: new 1km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 37(12): 4302-4315. Our algorithm has been published in an academic journal: Predicting Spatial Crime Occurrences through an Efficient Ensemble-Learning Model.
Bull Run Crime Risk Rankings
Societal Risks
Societal risk is low for Bull Run. The most significant societal threat for this property is Healthcare Infrastructure, with a high risk score of 57.
Hide detailsAir Pollution Hazard
The Air Pollution Hazard Score is moderate (43.11) for the closest AQI monitor (DCNearRoad), located 29.32 miles away from Bull Run.
The maximum recorded AQI over the last 3 years is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (109). The maximum recorded AQI over the last 3 years is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (149.73). Although the general public is not likely to be affected at this AQI range, people with lung disease, older adults and children are at a greater risk from exposure to ozone, whereas persons with heart and lung disease, older adults and children are at greater risk from the presence of particles in the air.
The Augurisk Air Pollution hazard score is defined at the U.S. block level. It is based on the daily median and maximal air quality values recorded at the nearest U.S. EPA AQI monitor over the last 3 years. All values are normalized to a 0-100 scale. To avoid disturbances in the distribution of risk scores, specific transformations to the higher percentiles of selected variables (i.e. winsorization) were applied to the maximal recorded AQI variable.
References
AQI data was collected from the U.S. EPA AirNow program. Map data is provided by Air Now Current Monitor Data Public on ESRI. More information on the U.S. AQI computation and interpretation can be found on the AirNow website.
Socioeconomic Risk
The Socioeconomic risk score for Bull Run is very low. In 2018, your county had a $118k Median Household Income and a 2.4% unemployment rate, as compared to the $51.2k and 4.13% national averages. Besides, its average educational attainment, poverty rate and income inequality levels were higher than respectively 83%, 7% and 17% of all U.S. counties.
The Augurisk socioeconomic risk index is based on multiple indicators, the two most important being the median household income and the unemployment rate. Additional factors include the mean educational attainment, poverty rate and income inequality in various proportions based on their respective correlations and sensitivity analysis. All values are normalized to a 0-100 scale.
The socioeconomic vulnerability index shown on the map is a distinct index, created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and based on 15 social factors. More information on the CDC SVI can be found in Flanagan et al. (2018).
References
Flanagan, B.E., E.J. Hallisey, E. Adams, and Lavery A. 2018. “Measuring Community Vulnerability to Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index.” Journal of Environmental Health 80(10):34–37. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service: county-level datasets. University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute. County Health Rankings & Roadmaps 2019. countyhealthrankings.org.
Healthcare Infrastructure
The nearest primary acute care or critical access hospital is located 5.52 miles away. The county hosts 1 hospital per 284.9K inhabitants, as opposed to the 1 per 66.9K national average.
The Augurisk Healthcare Infrastructure risk index is based on multiple risk components, including the number of health practitioners in your county, the distance to the nearest primary acute care or critical access hospital in the HIFLD Hospitals Database, and the size of the nearest hospital as expressed by its number of beds. All values are normalized to a 0-100 scale.
References
Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data: Hospitals at this link. University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute. County Health Rankings & Roadmaps 2019. www.countyhealthrankings.org.
Bull Run Societal Risk Rankings
Although the information found on this system and the Site has been produced and processed from sources believed to be reliable, no warranty, express or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information or predictions provided.